Ten years after: The Paris Agreement under implementation
“Two elements shared by all countries have emerged clearly. The first: the Paris Agreement works. The second: multilateralism remains the way to discuss and seek compromises, despite difficulties and marked differences,” says Federica Fricano, Senior Advisor at MASE, the Italian Ministry for Environment, during the “COP30: Outcomes and prospects of the Belém Conference” webinar organised by CMCC as the IPCC Focal Point for Italy.
COP30 in Brazil marked a shift from rule-making to action, earning its nickname “the implementation COP”. With all Paris Agreement rules now adopted, the focus was on putting commitments into practice, particularly on adaptation and finance.
Between a complex geopolitical context and the absence of the USA, countries agreed on a package of decisions, creating new spaces for cooperation such as the Global Implementation Accelerator and Mission 1.5 to share experiences and overcome obstacles in implementation. Vulnerable nations pushed for stronger adaptation finance, while non-state actors played an increasingly central role, highlighting that effective climate action depends on the whole of society, not just formal negotiations.
However, ten years after the Paris Agreement, a positive finding emerges: the system works. Aggregate emissions from countries with updated NDCs are lower than in the past, shifting climate scenarios from catastrophic projections of 3-4°C toward more contained trajectories – although still far from the 1.5°C target.
Mutirão: A global effort for climate action
The Brazilian Presidency introduced the “Mutirão Decision” – the key text within the Belém Package agreed to by all 195 participating countries – leveraging the contribution of the private sector, local entities, and civil society in the implementation phase.
One of the most striking outcomes of COP30 was the emphasis on non-state actors through the Mutirão, an indigenous term meaning “collective effort.” While formal negotiations often progress slowly and can frustrate expectations, the Brazilian Presidency deliberately highlighted the accelerated participation of civil society, the private sector, and subnational governments as a complementary track to official talks.
“This approach recognizes that the Paris Agreement can no longer operate top-down,” says Fricano: “countries set targets, but achieving them depends on the engagement of society in its entirety.” Non-state actors contribute not only through reporting but through concrete action, capacity building, and local initiatives that turn commitments into real-world results.
Mitigation: Progress made, challenges ahead
On the mitigation front, COP30 did not quite meet expectations. Mitigation was a central focus in Belém, set against the broader context of the Paris Agreement framework, where NDCs define country-level contributions and the Global Stocktake tracks collective progress toward 1.5°C. The Global Mutirão acknowledged progress since the Paris Agreement while highlighting that current NDCs, even if fully implemented, remain insufficient to meet the 1.5°C target.
The Brazilian Presidency introduced two new initiatives – the Global Implementation Accelerator to share best practices on NDCs, and Mission 1.5 to overcome obstacles in implementation – aimed at strengthening ambition through cooperative action. In particular, the Mitigation Work Programme focused primarily on procedural matters, including dialogues and investment events to connect projects with financing, while thematic messages on forests, waste, and circular economy were shared without creating binding commitments.
What was missing, however, according to MASE’s delegate Giulia Maria Baldinelli, included explicit references to the Global Stocktake paragraphs on energy transition and forests, as well as a roadmap for phasing out fossil fuels, leaving the link between NDCs, Stocktake, and future ambition unformalized.
“Looking ahead, the next steps will involve: understanding how the two new initiatives included in the final decision will be implemented, observing how parallel initiatives – such as Brazil’s or Colombia’s proposed initiatives for the transition away from fossil fuels – will influence the negotiation process, and evaluating the future of the Mitigation Work Programme and whether it can become a space with more concrete impact, also in relation to potential new mechanisms inside or outside the negotiations,” says Baldinelli.
Adaptation: Finally operational, but with reservations
“Belém marks an important, yet not conclusive, step: we now have the first global adaptation indicators, but their quality and applicability need strengthening. The roadmap remains complex, and there is a clear demand – especially from the most vulnerable countries – for the Global Goal on Adaptation to become a credible, actionable, and science-driven tool,” says Marianna Ronchini, policy adviser and adaptation specialist at MASE.
For the first time in the history of the Paris Agreement, adaptation became operational, with the Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA) providing the first formal structure to track adaptation progress globally. Parties adopted a set of 59 voluntary global indicators covering key areas – food systems, water resources, health, ecosystems, infrastructure, and vulnerable communities – alongside cross-cutting dimensions such as adaptive capacity, governance, equity, and means of implementation. Ronchini explains the historic significance: “Belém represents an important step: we have the first global indicators for adaptation. These indicators are designed to answer a fundamental question: how is adaptation progressing globally compared to the defined targets?”
Yet the decision sparked debate, with concerns over the selection and methodological robustness of indicators, the risk of fragmented follow-up, and the need for stronger scientific input. The final selection of indicators, modified by the Presidency without adequate scientific consultation, drew strong criticism from the EU, Switzerland, and numerous developing countries. The Brazilian President himself had to acknowledge that work will need to continue and improve.
Roadmap for National Adaptation Plans
National Adaptation Plans (NAPs), originally designed to support developing countries, are now recognized as central instruments for global climate action. At COP30 in Belém, the evaluation of progress on NAPs reached a key milestone: 71 developing countries and, for the first time, 13 developed countries submitted their plans, reflecting the integration of adaptation into broader national strategies.
NAPs aim to reduce vulnerability to climate impacts while embedding adaptation across policies, programs, and sectors, from national to local levels. Over time, they have become increasingly linked with Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), allowing priorities in adaptation plans to inform mitigation commitments and vice versa. Despite these advances, challenges remain – particularly in mobilizing finance, technology, and capacity building.
“Over time, we have observed the shift from plan formulation to implementation of planned actions,” says delegate Caterina Guidi, CMCC researcher. “Increasing the ‘financeability’ of plans can help improve implementation and attract new sources of capital, including the private sector.”
The critical step now is from planning to implementation: many plans remain on paper due to lack of means of support – finance, technology, capacity building. Looking ahead, the next review during COP31 in 2026 will assess updated guidance and expert reports, continuing the push to make NAPs actionable, inclusive, and fully operational across all countries.
Focus on climate finance
Climate finance remains a cornerstone of the Paris Agreement, underpinning both mitigation and adaptation efforts, particularly for developing countries. At COP30 in Belém, the discussions advanced significantly: a new financial goal was adopted, extending the previous $100 billion annual target to at least $300 billion per year by 2035, combining public and mobilized private resources, with a call to collectively mobilize $1.3 trillion from all sources.
“At COP30, climate finance was a major focus, and the framework decision includes several important measures,” says Alice Giallombardo, climate finance expert at MASE, “including the establishment of a high-level ministerial roundtable to review the implementation of the goal and the provision and mobilization of climate finance.”
The Baku to Belém Roadmap was established to identify effective strategies for resource mobilization and support fiscal space in developing countries, while also emphasizing the crucial role of public finance for adaptation and loss and damage.
“The decision represents an evolution compared to the previous goal, establishing an important widening of the donor base and recognizing the evolving contributory capacity of countries,” says Giallombardo. However, vulnerable countries, African nations, and India expressed strong dissatisfaction: the goal is considered insufficient compared to real needs. There is also a lack of a specific financial target for adaptation, a gap particularly felt by the most exposed countries.
What lies ahead
Belém did not come to many conclusions, rather it opened the path for more work and improvement. Looking ahead, all eyes are now on COP31, scheduled for November 2026 in Turkey. This next conference will provide a crucial opportunity to review progress on key elements such as the Global Goal on Adaptation, the Mitigation Work Programme, and National Adaptation Plans, as well as to advance the implementation of the new climate finance targets.
The global work and collaboration on climate continues, assessing how the initiatives launched at COP30 – like the Belém Adaptation Vision, the Global Implementation Accelerator, and the Baku To Belem Roadmap – translate into tangible action, while also offering a platform to address outstanding gaps and strengthen the link between ambition, finance, and on-the-ground results.
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